The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. Overrated Sleepers Running Backs Values Overrated Sleepers The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. NFL career: 1988-91, all with Cincinnati Bengals (4 seasons) Statistics/16 games: 659.5 rush yards/4.6 yards per . While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. Subscription, Early-March Top 10 Defensive Back IDP Rankings, 5 RBs to Buy In Dynasty Before NFL Free Agency. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. This is more important for Barkley than most backs because he relies on his immense gifts more than most backs. Even if he isn't named the Saints' starting quarterback, Hill's continued presence in the red zone and at the goal-line infringes on Kamara's touchdown opportunity. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City | Consensus Rankings RB15 | Consensus Projections RB17. He has good hands, but his route running hurt his opportunities to make clean catches against man-to-man coverage. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History By Paul Ladewski on August 3, 2021 Chris O'Meara / AP Photo Before franchise quarterbacks took pro football hostage, there was something known as franchise running backs. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. Victoria Geary: We should not steer clear of Harris completely for the 2021 season, but we should lower our expectations for a locked-and-loaded RB1 finish. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. He was used more as a receiver than anything. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. Earl Campbell 9. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. Henry has never caught more than 19 passes in a season, and that limited production as a receiver is an issue. James Brimacombe: Johnson has been a fantasy hero for us in the past, but now entering Year 7, his best days are behind him. History and time have helped make Perry one of the most overrated defensive players of all time. McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. 1 Tom Brady Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr., is an American football quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of the National Football League. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. But when we look closer, The Bus only averages 1,050 rushing yards per year and 7 touchdowns, far from elite stats. Hes the favorite for running back targets, but the offense doesnt really throw to the running backs. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. Michael Carter, NY Jets | Consensus Rankings RB37 | Consensus Projections RB36. But just like Logan Thomas, McKissic benefitted from a perfect storm of low average depth of target throws from the quarterbacks last year and the lack of receivers outside of Terry McLaurin. Chad Parsons: Malcolm Brown looks, at a minimum, like a strong 1B option but did get the start and most of the snaps with Tua Tagovailoa with the first team in the initial preseason game. Jonathan Morris: Gibson was already someone I was worried about getting enough volume to be drafted at his current ADP. Worst of all, he is now playing on the Houston Texans, who have no identity on offense heading into the season. Has no highlight reel. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. Single Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. His lack of use as a runner has to be a concern. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. 54 touchdowns. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. Chad Parsons: Sanders stands out in the mid-teens of the running back draft pecking order most with his odds of being a high-impact option. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. His current draft price is almost his upside. He had the second-worst catch rate in the league last year among running backs, catching only 56% of his targets and dropping eight passes along the way (tied for most with Ezekiel Elliot). Swift has already broken the injury seal with a groin issue in camp, and Jamaal Williams has already been spoken of highly as a potential 1A to Swift's No. It's not entirely his fault. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. . Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. 3) Micah Richards. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. McKissic. There's too much risk to draft him as an ever-week starter. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. The investment in veteran wideout Sammy Watkins and rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace almost cements Dobbinss capped upside in the passing game. Barry Sanders 3. That, plus the uncertainty of Edmond's role, leaves me more concerned than excited. Gaskin has an RB2 ceiling, but an RB3 value is a much stronger likelihood than many realize, whether it's Brown or a summer free-agent acquisition like Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, or a recent starter a team lets go to make room for an emerging force. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. He also spent his first 5 years on the saints, where he got 20 carries exactly 2 times there. 20 20. Sigmund Bloom: Brian Robinson Jr had an excellent preseason debut, while Antonio Gibson fumbled *again*, so this is trending in the wrong direction for Gibson's 2022 redraft value. They will be pass-dominant inside the five-yard line, which doesn't help Edwards-Helaire's fantasy stock. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. Bettis was also a nonfactor in the passing game. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. Brown has always been a strong contributor inside the five-yard line scoring 9 rushing touchdowns in the last two years in that hot zone. 15 Best Running Backs of All-Time; And was brought back by a new staff that keeps saying he will be a significant part of the offense. Jordan McNamara: Malcom Brown drew the starter role in the first preseason game, and the team has shown the willingness to change starters against conventional wisdom when Gaskin was a surprise starter in Week 1. Tevin Coleman was specifically brought in because he knows the run-blocking schemes the Jets will employ this year, and Ty Johnson hasn't gone anywhere either. Its a knock on his offensive line. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup This slideshow lists the most underrated and overrated quarterbacks, running backs and receivers in the NFL, and the choices might shock you. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. Adrian Peterson 10. No thanks. Ty Johnson has strong athleticism and played over Carter in the first week of the preseason, and La'Mical Perine has a similar profile to Carter. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. Sigmund Bloom: There are too many forces that Barkley has to swim upstream again to justify taking Barkley at his lofty ADP. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. . Only he and Jim brown had a full career average of 5.0 ypc lifetime. We use cookies to personalize content, ads and analyze site traffic. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. There are backs going after Chubb who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage. And the Titans got worse this offseason, losing wide receiver Corey Davis, tight end Jonnu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Henry is one of my favorite players in the league, but there are preferable first-round picks for me in 2021. most overrated running backs of all time. You wrote in to criticize me immediately following a 4-0 win against Forest where, for the first time all season, Moyes bowed to enormous pressure and played a back 4, told Declan to actually be . I'm out. His ADP says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, but he's still being overvalued at his current price. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. The uncertainty of Fournette's touch volume will make it hard to start him with confidence throughout the season, so a late-sixth-round ADP seems steep. Davis was great in relief of Christian McCaffrey in Carolina last year, but he got tired quickly. Jamal Lewis rushed for nearly 3,400 yards in the first two seasons back from his ACL tear. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. For example, take Imagine Dragons and Maroon 5, both very accomplished. His current draft price is almost his upside. Adding another trip around the sun and competition from two young, capable running backs is the recipe for the bottom to fall out for Gordon. Eric Dickerson 8. His fantasy value came in catching 59 receptions, which won't happen in Arthur Smith's offense that doesn't throw to the tailbacks much. The team added Brian Robinson Jr Jr. on day two of the draft while retaining J.D. Durability is atop the list after missing six games last year. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Gaskin may be the top option for now, but that could change with a strong outing from veteran Malcolm Brown or Salvon Ahmed. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Edgerrin James 17. Most overrated players in Madden 21 J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston Texans. James is the more physically gifted player. It's possible that Las Vegas will lean on Jacobs, knowing he won't be back next year, but that goes against McDaniels' past style of play. Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. McKissic, one the league's better pass-catching backs. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Taylor can be a rock-solid option and still be pecked away with Hines and Mack enough to be more in the RB10-15 range. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Additionally, Brandon Bolden -- a member of Josh McDaniels' Patriot teams -- is with the club.