Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Finally, numerical bellwether scores for all 3142 counties in the US were computed based upon the number of . This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. That is a very good thing to have. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Medicare is becoming a joke. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Two states have announced recounts. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. 'I Should Start Voting'. I would never vote any other way. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. We need to make ourselves energy independent again. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. Bremer County, Iowa In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We need election reform.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. But its still anyones game when taking into account the 1.2 million unaffiliated or other-party voters and the roughly 70 percent voter turnout. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Perhaps that is why they are a true bellwether county, not fully committing to one political party over the other. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. I got a life. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. They can try all they can to prevent whatever they want to prevent, but nature is going to run its course, no matter what, Tisdell said. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Its just not that great, Paul said. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. On . When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. But thats not the picture I look at. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Im not happy with either party. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. With unfounded fraud claims swirling, red California county dumps Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Two states have announced recounts. Required fields are marked *. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. I kind of keep in my bubble. Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. With all the inflation, its challenging, and can be tricky to run a business, Miller, 58, said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. bellwether. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Right now, its horrible. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Farming also is huge here. These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be 'National Bellwether The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. Here's why. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting..